Welcome to the NH Turnip thread, based on the ACNL thread ran by Dalek and Nintendude64. You can use this thread to discuss turnip trends, offer your current price for people to come sell, or ask questions about what others think is going to happen in your town.Rules:
1. By posting your prices here, you promise not to charge an admission price to come to your town to sell turnips. If you are requiring a trade of some sort (bells, items, etc.), please create your own thread on this board.
2. Tips are allowed - but it's up to the person who is selling whether or not he or she gives a tip. It's not allowed to require one (see above).
3. Please don't spam the thread with "Can I come over" messages. Instead send a PT and FCR/Dodo Code to the user. (ACC Dodo Code Policy)
4. Posting daily low prices (under 110bpt) is only preferred if you are helping with the analysis of pricing trends or asking about the trend in your town. Please don't post that your price is a low amount & you're looking for someone with better prices - that kind of post may be removed as spam.Overview:
For those who aren't familiar with the Stalk Market, every island is different every day. After you buy turnips at your island's price from Daisy Mae, you have until Sunday at 5am to sell them before they expire and lose all their worth. Every island's shop will have a morning selling price beginning at 5am, and an afternoon selling price from 12pm-10pm. Because of this it's a gamble to sell when you see a high price, or wait and see if you can do better later in the week. Working with others to figure out the trend or sell at their market prices can help you maximize your profits from the Stalk Market.
Be careful if you're a time traveller - Time traveling forwards or backwards could potentially spoil your turnips like previous games!Trend Prediction Resources:
With all the changes brought about in ACNH, we need to pay special attention to gathering data to see if things are the same as previous games or not! Generally speaking, turnip pricing follows a limited set of patterns. By recording the first few days' prices you can predict which type of week your island is possibly having. We don't know if the trends are exactly the same as previous games, but in ACNL there were 3 types of weeks:
1. Rollercoaster - the prices go up and down without any predictability of direction or amount. Prices can range anywhere from 30 bells to 199 bells (Guessed). If your Monday AM price is higher than your Sunday price from Daisy Mae or it is higher than 100 bells, you are likely to experience a rollercoaster week.
2. Steady Decline - The price falls 1 - 9 bells each time & never increases all week. This week is impossible to determine before Thursday PM prices as this week looks exactly like a spiking week with the only difference being that a spiking week will start the spike on Thursday PM if not earlier in the week.
3. Spike - The price falls 1 - 9 bells each time until they start to rise. This rise can start as early as Monday AM (earlier than in previous games), so watching the prices is even more important at the beginning of each week. Normally there will be 3 rises in the price before the highest price (the spike) occurs. Spikes can be one of three types:
3a. Low Spike - the price after the first rise either doesn't go up much or it goes down. The price usually doesn't go over 200, but it is possible for it to get to just under 300. Sell on the 3rd price after the first rise. If the price rise starts on Thursday AM, sell on Friday PM. It is possible for the spike to happen on the 3rd rise as well which means it's possible if the first rise is on Thursday AM then your spike can be on Friday AM. There is also a 5-price low spike that will include two dips in the week - however those are very rare. Bottom Line: If your price is over 180 during a low spike week, that'll be the spike.
3b. Medium Spike - the price rises 3 times in a row. The high price will be somewhere between 300 & 500. Sell on the 2nd price after the rise starts. If the rise starts on Thursday AM, sell on Friday AM.
3c. High Spike - the price rises 3 times in a row. The high price will be at least 500. Sell on the 2nd price after the rise starts. If the rise starts on Thursday AM, sell on Friday AM.
If I can get a say in this (or to add a side note if ok) - if you guys don't have a shop built yet, please keep in mind that you need to have the shop built first before posting and revealing your prices and starting the stalk market.
Thanks for making this, this is the 1st time I'm doing stalk market and I'm really riding on not burning my 1M bells of turnips. I shouldn't be on the rollercoaster (prices went 51 -> 47 today) so I'll post later in the week if I hit a spike.
Do the starting prices of the turnips have any correlation to how high your spike is when you get a Spike Trend?
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I'm not sure if the sunday's buying price is important to analyze what turnip prices you got throughout the week. Mondays are too early to make predictions. Usually spikes happen when you're at steady decline so it happens to me at rare times during the day and week.
I normally keep my turnip prices updated every day and week just to be safe enough including Sunday's buying price.
This has been a very interesting read. I never paid much attention to the stalk market in the other games. I didn't even know the price changed during the day, so that's good to know. I'll have to track it and see if I can figure out which pattern it is following. I don't really remember what it was today when I checked, other than it was like 40 or something. I'll be more diligent in future. Thanks for the information.
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