so... my best friend's favorite villager in my town was rumored to move, one of my villagers said that he was thinking of moving, so my friend has been trying to get him to ping him, but no dice. I get on today, and another villager pings me, telling me HE'S moving, not the other one. So, the other one isn't moving? Am I all clear to time skip without accidentally putting my friend's favorite villager in boxes?

It sounds like he doesnt have a good relationship with the villager or isnt on speaking terms. Have your friend chat the villager up for a bit and see if that helps. Also, try the ocean trick where you swim out and hang around in the water for a bit then find the villager. For some reason this makes them ping.