My girlfriend flipped out last week when the Wizard told her to hold her turnips at 230. Of course, all was good later that afternoon when Tom upped his price to 563 bells. Oh -- now she's all about the wizard.

Kurt

Last week's data was full of holes due to Nook upgrade/IRL sickness. I can still post it if you want though.

Two suggestions: maybe have two versions of the wizard, identical except for the "flavor text". The first can be as it is now for n00bs; the second can be for us who know how it works and can give details ("this is a random week", "there is x percent that this is a declining week and x percent it is a mountain week", etc.).

Also in this flavor text:

"It may be a rocky week my friend. Make sure you keep on checking the turnip prices twice a day. This week is especially critical that I help you eek out a profit."

"eek" should be "eke".

Thanks for the spelling catch there.

Tomorrow, I'll add some "power user" text at the bottom of each recommendation that will let you know which pattern has been detected and probabilities.

Kurt

eek!


*snicker*

I bought 500 yesterday. I just hope I have something about 200.

Thanks. For the power user text, could you also add an estimate of which time will be the best to sell? Like there's a x% chance that Thursday afternoon will have the best turnip prices.

Yes, I will add in some text as to what date and time the wizard expects to sell if he knows. There are some patterns in which this is impossible, but I'll make sure you aren't left hanging.

Kurt

Thanks, I figured that there would be some patterns where this would be difficult if not impossible.

I think if you gave some basic options on the first rise that would be sufficient until the other prices defined the trend better. For example, if Wednesday PM was the first rise then say that you'd probably be seeing the best price to sell on Thursday PM or Friday AM.

The Stalk Market Wizard has been Upgraded

At the bottom of the recommendation page, you will now see:
1) Your turnip prices displayed and separated by commas
2) What pattern the Wizard has detected
3) When he thinks your earliest sell date will be

Hopefully you like the changes. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Kurt Boyer

Looks pretty good:

"Hold Your Turnips

Ok, who put a turnip under my mattress last night? I couldn't sleep at all! I'm recommending for you to hold onto your turnips for a bit longer. I'm crossing my fingers for better prices. Check back with me after noon and we'll see how to proceed.

Sincerely,
The Stalk Market Wizard

Data: 76, 68, 87, 114, 128
Pattern(s) detected: Rollercoaster (random)
Best Guess Sell Time: Unknown"

I'm guessing the wizard feels there might be a drop then a higher slow spike near the end of the week?

During the rollercoaster pattern, the wizard starts off the week by being pretty aggressive and he'll wait for a larger profit. By the end of the week, he gets way more conservative and tries to get out at any profit. There will most likely be at least a couple more profit opportunities later on.

Kurt Boyer

Hi Kurt and everyone,
I got Constantly Decreasing pattern with Unknown sell time.  Just wondering if this pattern usually has a spike or not.  Please tell me more about this pattern if you have any other info...thanks for all of your hard work!
Kelly

The wizard will keep you in "the market" until Thursday night if the constantly decreasing pattern continues. All of the big money making patterns start off as a constantly decreasing pattern, so there isn't anything to worry about at this point.

At this point, there is no way for the wizard or anyone to tell you if the pattern will change to a profitable one. Hang in there.

Kurt Boyer

Hello everyone!

Kurt, thank you so much for all of your hard work.  The Wizard is wonderful!  I made profit last week(bought at 107 and sold at 173).  Unfortunately I missed the Thursday am price so I may have missed a higher price.  I'm not complaining though because I still made a good profit.  This week Nook's was closed on Monday so again I will not be able to give The Wizard the whole week's worth of prices.  By the way, I love what you've added.  I like how Mr. Wizard now tells you the pattern and predicted time to sell.  It makes him even more helpful.  Again, thaks for helping us all with our turnip investments.

You are very welcome Stellar_Echo.

I've been teaching my daughters the ins and outs of turnip investing, and they love the massive bells they are making. With the wizard, I don't need to go over and over about pattern matching and blah blah blah. I initially wrote it for my family, but I'm glad others are finding its benefits too.

Good luck in your future investments.

Kurt Boyer

I think the wizard is a useful tool and it certainly helps with the yo-yo type weeks.  

When you get a steadily decreasing week nothing is going to help you make a profit, all you can do is wait until the price should go up and if not, sell and minimise your losses.

I’ve noticed that in the past it has been a little on the conservative side and has tended to recommend selling before the peak price.  Though in both cases the difference was only 10-20 bells a turnip.

This week I got a spike of 488 bells a turnip so it was not rocket science to know that it was time to sell.

So I would say that it is a useful tool if used with caution and backed by your own judgement.

Oh yes! Finally after waiting and waiting, I can tell you to sell your turnips. Congratulations on your profit. Proceed to Mr. Nook and say hi for me. Check back with me next week for more advice.


My high price this week so far was 315 (today a.m.)

I sold! My numbers:76, 72, 67, 63, 111, 159, 315

It was nice to have a good week. I ended last week with a 32. Luckily I didn't buy that week. It was a horrible one.

I knew I shouldn't have checked my prices today after getting the okay to sell from the Wizard yesterday.

I'm only able to check my prices at night.  I suppose that coupled with the fact that Nook's was closed on Tuesday threw something off.

M PM: 65
T: Nook's Closed
W PM: 74
Th PM: 94

Yeah, the Wizard is designed to accept every price change that Nook can give you. In your case, the wizard saw the pattern as 65, 65, 65. 65, 74, 74, 94, 94 because you only checked at night. I wouldn't trust his input with input like that unfortunately.

I think I put something about he expects every price on the page, but I forget. I'll check and if I didn't, I'll update the page immediately.

You bring up an interesting point though. Maybe I'll run the data through my neural net and see what I can do for people that only get the nighttime changes.

Kurt

Kurt - any plans on running starting (Joan) prices through your cylon network to look for patterns?

I'd love to see if you could adjust your rollercoaster week selling suggestions. Under normal conditions, if I get a price over 130 I go ahead & sell - especially near the beginning of the week when the Wizard would say to hold. While I realize that there is a possibility of a higher price if I wait, for me it's usually not worth the added stress of waiting on the prices to go up & down uncertain if it really willrise higher than I saw near the beginning of the week.

For me it's also a question of the potential size of the extra profit lost that makes me consider selling early. If the best I've seen in a rollercoaster is 155 or so, a price of 130 on Monday AM would be a loss of 2500 bells per pack of 100. As that price gets nearer the high mark,the potential prfitloss decreases. At a price of 140, the potential loss would be only 1500 bells per bundle.

Of course, this is always a personal decision when it comes to how much risk a person wants to take on or avoid.

Right now the wizard shoots for 135 at the beginning of the week in a rollercoaster pattern. Using yours and Liquefy's data, that number kept coming up as an attainable figure most of the time. I believe that by Wednesday, he drops his greed and starts going for any profit.

The way I've programmed him, he will NEVER sell on the Monday AM price. In my opinion, it is worth the risk to wait until the PM price for the patterns to develop.

But I'll consider the 130 -- I just worry that the masses will get angry if he sells too "soon."

Kurt

And see last week, the Wizard worked stellar for me even though I only check prices at night.  I wish I could check them in the morning, but unfortunately Nook's isn't open at 6 AM in my town.  

I'm not against TT, but I really, really HATE Resetti.  If I could get him to not pop up ever again, I would be more likely to go back in time to check the patterns.

But even if I had checked both AM and PM, what does Nook's being closed for a day do to the Wizard?

Resetti doesn't bother you if you TT.

I also can only play at 6am and then again at 6pm.  I move my Wii clock forward 3 hours to get my prices, and when I done my morning "session", I go back to the main menu and put it back.