Howdy all. I'm new to this group, so I thought I'd drop in and say hi. I've been a lurker since I bought City Folk about a month ago.
Recently my daughters asked me what the "stalk market" was all about and I had a great discussion with them about it. They both invested and subsequently lost a good percentage -- and I was both happy and a little sad. I was happy that they learned a lesson about gambling, but sad because now they had to fish the river for an hour to make up the money.
So, I set off to figure out a way to better predict the market -- and I have. I'm a programmer and have been for over 20 years. In fact at one point in my life I wrote neural nets for the banking industry to predict the stock market. I've used some of those skills to create the "Stalk Market Wizard".
This is amazing. I didnt buy any turnips this week because I had to sell at a loss last week but I will be sure to buy some sunday so I can give it a go
Did you put this on the main boards?
Great Work
Signature-------------- 39 / Female / Uk Member of Buns
To use the wizard, you enter the prices into the boxes as you see them in real time. For example, on Monday morning, you enter in the Nook price in "Monday AM" and then you click on the recommendation button. In the afternoon, come back to the wizard and put in the new price that Tom nook is advertising -- and again click on the recommendation button.
The stalk market wizard will tell you whether or not you should sell your turnips immediately. It doesn't predict and show you what the future prices will be. He simply tells you when to sell -- which is a difficult task.
Ah, that makes sense, and it does seem quite difficult. Kudos to you for developing something so complicated!
There was a way to know when to sell in ACWW that just involved how much the prices changed from morning to afternoon, and how they began. You could always know whether to sell on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday... and you could predict when a spike might occur.
But, as far as I can tell, CF's stalk market is not quite as predictable.
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80s_lover, you are so right about CF not being as predictable as WW. I think that the only some people have made money so far in CF is if they belong to a good WiFi group and then when one has a price spike, someone else sets their town to sunday.
Most people don't belong to such good groups so this is a great little tool.
Signature-------------- Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult ~ Cherbear If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there -Carroll
I started my game on New Years day. What was that? ...a Thusday.
On Friday, the 2nd, I made the mistake of asking for Turnip prices from Nookie.
"632 per" he chortled with an evil glint in his eye, and knowing full well there were no White Turnips in my house!
*sigh*
Isn't there some kind of trades commission he can be reported with?
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I barely understand this whole stalk market thing, so this looks awesome!! I only have WW, do you think the wizard would be helpful for that or just for CF?
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Worked like a charm in CF! I TT'd over the past weekend, so when Nook showed a small profit last night, but the wizard told me to hang on until today, I sold half my position to break even, taking a chance I normally wouldn't have on the rest.
Tonight the price jumped, and I ended with a tidy profit.
Thanks so much for building this. It is a wonderful tool!
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I belong to a group of ladies on here and we play the turnip market every week, this may well help us. I have not looked at it yet but will let you know how it works out. Buying and selling works very well in a team as hopefully there is someone with at least a half decent price. We all post out prices daily am/pm to help us look at patterns, and it works fairly well. Most of us turn over well over a million each week which is great as we like to spend hard to
EDIT Kurt I just looked at it and added my prices for this week, it was correct every day and finally said I would sell immediately this morning. It said it may go up again this afternoon, but recommend you sell. the price this morning was 190 and pm was 199. So was spot on. Although I sold at over 400 somewhere else lol . I will now use this every week. Thanks again.
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This is absolutely brilliant..I didn't get any turnips last week or this week or next week because I won't be around before 12..but the week after I will and am so gonna use this to see how it goes..well done BlueHairMonkey must have taken some time to come up with this...
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Now this is odd. This shouldn't be happening. I've never seen the stalk market act up like this -- and on a Monday evening no less! Although everything is looking fishy at this point, I'd probably hold onto your turnips for a bit. Lets see what the market has in store for you tomorrow morning. Check back!
Sincerely, The Stalk Market Wizard"
Signature-------------- 39 / Female / Uk Member of Buns
I've been doing the same basic thing on my ACCF Turnip price sticky thread on the ACCF WiFi Board (only in a very analog way & building on my own knowledge of the Stalk Market as it was in ACWW). It seems to have a few problems when it comes to predicting the 4 & 5 price low spike weeks (I tested it with some of my own data collected since Nov16), but is still a good resource.
Did you use WW data to help flesh out the recommendations or was your data purely ACCF? Were you the only source of your test data or did others help gather data?
Posted: 1/21/2009 9:11am Edited: 3 Staff Edited
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